A system in the Caribbean Sea has a moderate chance of strengthening into Tropical Storm Nadine by this weekend, and most forecasts show the storm moving in the opposite direction from Florida. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has been closely monitoring several systems of interest this week. Among these, a system in the Atlantic Ocean known as AL94 had previously shown chances of becoming Tropical Storm Nadine but is now less likely to develop into a named storm.
On the other hand, the system in the northwestern Caribbean, referred to as AL95, is increasingly likely to become the next named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season by this weekend. As concern about tropical activity heightened in the U.S. last week, many people feared that another tropical storm could target Florida shortly after hurricanes Milton and Helene impacted the Sunshine State.
However, most forecast models, known as spaghetti models, suggest that AL95 will likely track west across Central America or Mexico. One model even shows a potential curve northeast toward Florida, but WFLA-TV's chief meteorologist, Jeff Berardelli, mentioned that a cold front in Florida would provide temporary protection against tropical storm activity.
What You Will Learn
- Tropical Storm Nadine's potential formation and trajectory.
- The impact of cold fronts on tropical storm activity in Florida.
- The significance of monitoring systems AL94 and AL95 by the NHC.
- Expected weather conditions in Central America and southern Mexico.
Most models predict that if Nadine does form, it will likely remain a tropical storm or, at most, a Category 1 hurricane. According to an NHC spokesperson, widespread showers and thunderstorms continue across the northwestern Caribbean Sea due to a broad area of low pressure that is becoming more defined north of eastern Honduras. Environmental conditions seem conducive for further development over the next day or so, and a brief tropical depression or storm could form before the system moves inland over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday.
Regardless of whether development occurs, heavy rainfall is anticipated across portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend. The NHC has indicated a medium (50 percent) chance of formation within the next 48 hours and up to a week. Over the past week, the likelihood of a storm forming soon has increased, with meteorologists closely observing the region for potential development since early this month.
As for the Atlantic Ocean system known as AL94, it is expected to be disrupted by strong upper-level winds this weekend. Regardless of its development, AL94 could still bring rain and wind to northern Caribbean islands.
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